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ShreeMetalPrices: The EU Continues to be Dependent on Russia, and Russian Oil Exports are Rising.

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Since the war, the EU has imported 13% of its crude and 28% of its refined goods. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there has already been a significant change in the trade in tanker shipping. However, it is insignificant in comparison to the consequences of an EU embargo on Russian tanker cargo. The EU continues to be a significant importer of Russian seaborne petroleum, according to new statistics from the commodity analytics. In its efforts to wean itself from Russia, the EU has made some success. But time is limited, and there is still a long way to go. Beginning on December 5, the EU will prohibit the import of crude oil by sea, and on February 5, it will prohibit the entry of refined products.
These deadlines could result in abrupt, traumatic, and severe disruptions to global commodities flows given the huge amounts that still exist today.

Increasing exports of Russian crude

According to Commodities data, during the first seven months of the war, Russia’s seaborne crude shipments averaged 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d). This is an increase of 17% from the same time in 2021. In March through September, Russia’s crude product exports averaged 1.4 million b/d, a 5.5% (y/y) decrease. Russia’s total seaborne exports of petroleum and products increased by 9% year over year, averaging 4.8 million b/d from March to September. Therefore, more Russian cargo is being load onto tankers than before the attack. Despite all the “self-sanctioning” rhetoric about not helping the military invader.

EU Improvements in Substituting Russian Crude.

Russian crude is not as dependent on the EU as Russian refined products are (particularly diesel). Despite recent trade changes. Russia continues to Export a sizable portion of the crude oil that the EU buys by sea. According to Commodity data, during the seven months after the war started, EU countries purchased an average of 1.2 million b/d of seaborne oil. That represents a 21% decrease, or an average of 320,100 b/d, from the same time in 2021. In place of Russian barrels, EU members have significantly reduced their imports, according to a senior commodity analyst , who spoke with American Shipper.


In comparison to the same months the year prior. The average volume of crude imports into the EU from nations other than Russia increased by 1.3 million b/d in March through September. As replacement cargoes are moving longer, this has been very beneficial for tanker rates. Tanker demand is expressed in ton-miles, which is volume times distance. The EU has increased tanker demand by substituting (and significantly supplementing) short-haul Russian crude with longer-haul replacement crude. What must happen beginning on December 5 when the EU import embargo takes effect dwarfs the shift away from Russia over the previous seven months.

Europe Crude Oil Imports.

The EU’s average crude imports from Russia in September are down 668,926 b/d from February. When the invasion took place, to provide us an indication of the magnitude of the upcoming shift. It took seven months for that drop. The prohibition is set to become effective in less than ten weeks. At that moment, the EU’s imports of Russian crude must decrease by a factor of roughly two greater than they did in the seven months following the invasion. According to Commodity data, Russian seaborne crude had a 12% market share this month and must be completely eliminated.

In comparison to the same months the year prior. The average volume of crude imports into the EU from nations other than Russia increased by 1.3 million b/d in March through September. As replacement cargoes are moving longer, this has been very beneficial for tanker rates. Tanker demand is expressed in ton-miles, which is volume times distance. The EU has increased tanker demand by substituting (and significantly supplementing) short-haul Russian crude with longer-haul replacement crude. What must happen beginning on December 5 when the EU import embargo takes effect dwarfs the shift away from Russia over the previous seven months.

Europe Major Import Source

Since the start of the war, Russian product exports to all destinations have moderately declined. Nevertheless, the EU has actually boosted its imports of Russian goods during this time. I’Anson said that since the start of the war, EU members have continued to import a significant amount of Russian fuel and gasoline. He clarified that the EU’s substitution of U.S. crude for Russian crude had the unintended consequence of raising EU demand for Russian diesel. Given that American crude imports are noticeably lighter and sweeter than Russian grades. and lighter grades produce more gasoline and light ends [than distillates], it “reinforces the EU requirement for distillates.”

According to Commodity data, from March to September, the EU imported an average of 945,501 b/d of clean Russian products. This is an increase of 12% or 102,716 b/d over the same time period in 2021. And there’s yet more good news for product-tanker rates: In addition to increasing its imports from Russia. The EU also raised its purchases from other farther-flung sources, which increased tanker ton-mile demand. In comparison to March–September 2021, average EU imports of seaborne clean products from non–Russian sources increased by 193,381 b/d. Looking ahead, the EU’s import restrictions on Russian goods seem to be considerably more troublesome than the impending sanctions against Russian fuel.
Russian seaborne product imports made up an average of 28% of all EU product imports during the past seven months. Which is twice as much as Russia contributed to the EU’s seaborne crude imports over the same time period.

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